Predicted Lineup: Verbruggen; Wieffer, van Hecke, Dunk, de Cuyper; Baleba (🟡), Ayari; Minteh (🟡), O’Riley (🟡), Mitoma; Georginio (🟡)
🟡 = a 75–90% chance of starting
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Fabian HĂĽrzeler on Georginio Rutter's flexibility (and dynamics with Danny Welbeck):
“With the loss from João [Pedro], we miss one more striker. Stefanos [Tzimas] needs time to step into this role, so it’s a little bit of a balance thing. You have two strikers with Danny [Welbeck], with Georgi, like, how to finish a game, how to start a game, how to finish strong.
So for example, if Georgi starts, you can replace him with Danny. If you start with both, then you need to think about who’s a replacement. So it’s more a balance thing, but I’m very happy that Georgi can play in both positions.
He can play as a striker, he can play as a 10 and an 8, so he’s very flexible, and that’s something that helps us.”
There’s a common idea going around about whether player x is more impactful off the bench, and if that means he should always start there to change the game when needed. I don’t agree with this methodology, and I don’t think Danny Welbeck has qualities that make him uniquely suited to coming off the bench.
He did have a pretty good game vs. Fulham though, and I think the “connection” in the forward line instantly shifted with Welbeck as the 9. He also brings much-needed experience, which doesn’t hurt to have from the start, so I do think the chances of him starting are much higher now, whether that’s at the expense of Georginio Rutter or Matt O’Riley.
But realistically, whether or not Welbeck starts comes down to a) his pressing/fitness and b) how he fits with the rest of the attack. This is probably the fittest he’ll be for the rest of his career, so it comes down to dynamics.
Let’s say Stefanos Tzimas is still two months away from starting games. You need a 9 as a stopgap, and over that kind of timeframe it may as well be one of the better players in your squad, especially when that someone has been called a “connector” and clearly has qualities to offer. So yeah, when it comes to dynamics, that’s a point in Georginio’s favour.
I don’t think this means Welbeck will never start for Brighton again, just that the club probably sees Georginio as a more valuable internal solution at CF. So while Georginio and O’Riley have been marked 🟡 in the graphic above, I still think they start. I just wouldn’t want to stake anything too important on it.
Hürzeler once said Yankuba Minteh is less effective against low blocks, and he did try Georginio out wide a few times last season. He’s since said Georginio is better centrally, but that basically (principally) means you can’t rule out someone else starting at RW. IF Minteh doesn’t start, Brighton have two options out wide: Brajan Gruda and Ferdi Kadioğlu. Gruda, though, is also preferred centrally for physicality reasons, while Kadioğlu is still building up fitness. So while Minteh starting might not be seen as *ideal*, the lack of options more or less necessitates it. It’s just a little less safe than before (The Hürzeler Caveat ™)
If Carlos Baleba is fit (which Hürzeler’s press conference suggested), he’ll start. If not, Diego Gómez likely starts instead, simply because I don’t think Jack Hinshelwood comes straight in.
As I conclude this article with an unchanged predicted lineup, it’s worth noting that Hürzeler has never named the same XI in back-to-back games. Which, wait—that means this lineup probably isn’t going to sta—